As we enter a new year of hope for a rapidly expanding tech
industry we also have to take stock that the times ahead, while full of
promise, could also be fraught with trouble for some.
In 2013, we lost games publisher THQ and video retail chain
Blockbuster among others, so the streets are not necessarily paved with gold
for all. Some are merely paved with broken dreams and diminishing returns.
Hopefully, all will hop and skip their way over the slabs throughout the 12
months successfully, like Michael Jackson in the Billy Jean video, but these
are the companies we think are most at risk and will have to wear their most
grippy-soled dancing pumps.
BlackBerry
The once mighty BlackBerry (née Rim) had a troubled 2013 and
it's hard to see how things can improve radically over the course of 2014. The
end of last year saw the axing of former CEO Thorsten Heins, a soft-launch of
BlackBerry 10 handset the Z30, almost as if the company was embarrassed by it,
and the confirmation that without the help of new partner Foxconn, the firm
would have to exit the phone manufacturing business entirely.
Its share prices have fallen steadily and continue to do so,
regardless of the ambition of new CEO John Chen. He recently announced that the
company's recent enforced changes and new positioning in the market are in a
good position to return to profitability by 2016. This will mean a greater
focus on the company's BlackBerry Enterprise Services and BBM on multiple
platforms. But with major rivals spending more on alternative solutions to
attract business customers - such as Samsung's Knox - and other messaging competitors
having an upper hand across the devices recently supported by BBM, the more
obvious perils lie this year, not further down the line.
HTC
In all honesty, we would be devastated if HTC had a tricky
2014, it has already had a rocky 12 months regardless of the launch of what
many consider the best Android phone on the market. But it is for that reason
that there could still be troubles ahead for the Taiwanese firm. If the best
smartphone couldn't turn the company into a profitable organisation, what can?
Early hope will lie in its follow-up handset, currently
dubbed the HTC One 2 or HTC M8 (as a codename). Many expect it to be launched
as soon as
possible, most likely at Mobile World Congress in February in order
to make a positive impact on the current financial year rather than the next.
But unless it follows up with similarly well-received devices later in the
calendar year, the constant rumours of a company-wide buyout could well turn
from speculation to fact in 2014.
Nokia
All eyes will be on what remains of Nokia once Microsoft has
formerly taken ownership of the devices arm of the company, and whether there
will be enough to continue to be profitable concern. Here Maps is no doubt
loved by many, but recently problems with compatibility with iOS 7 have forced
that branch to remove the app from iTunes and this is not something it can
afford to repeat if it wants to remain competitive, considering even the
initially troubled Apple Maps is improving.
Hope lies in the fact that Microsoft will be licensing the
Nokia brand for its Asha handsets for the next 10 years, and although there's
no such deal for the Lumia Windows Phone 8 handsets, that will at least form a
steady source of income. It will also keep the Nokia name in the spotlight,
even if the company itself works more in the background.
Polaroid
The once mighty Polaroid brand has switched owners and focus
many times in the last decade or so and has recently been associated mostly
with cheap digital cameras and portable printers. And while we applaud the
instant photography and sharing ethos of the latest line-up, recent attempts to
move into other areas of photography have met with failure.
Most notable of these comes with the Polaroid-branded iM1836
Android-based interchangeable lens camera. Although it seemed like a good idea,
in practicality it was actually rather poor, as we discovered when we went
hands-on with it at CES 2013. It has since been withdrawn from market, although
not because it was a letdown in performance terms, but because it blatantly
copied the aesthetics of Nikon's 1 series, a fact that did not go unnoticed by
Nikon's team of lawyers.
Olympus
Remarkably, Olympus was one of the companies we included in
a similar rundown of those at risk two years ago yet remains, so there's
something to be said for the firm's staying power. And with a reported rise in
the popularity of mirrorless cameras, CEO Hiroyuki Sasa even believes that the
camera division will trun a profit in 2014.
However, Credit Suisse analyst Yu Yoshida believes that
because of the collapse of the compact camera business, Olympus will be one of
a few casualties in the forthcoming year. "Only those who have a strong
brand and are competitive on price will last - and only Canon, Nikon and Sony
fulfil that criteria," he said.
Mozilla
You would think that Mozilla is a company with a big enough
variety of software to stay clear of too many troubles, but we predict that it
will struggle further to with the Firefox browser and the Firefox OS smartphone
operating system. Mass adoption of each will remain hampered by fierce
competition from Microsoft, Google and Apple.
What strikes Mozilla different from others on this list
perhaps, is its philosophy of remaining true to its open source roots. And by
continuing down the community path and keeping its software open source, it
will continue to be support by a fervent fan base. But what could be an issue
in 2014 is that a contract with Google to feature its search engine in Firefox
expires in November and should that not be renewed a major source of revenue
could disappear with it. Public donations and funding will not be enough to
make up the difference.
Nintendo
It would be ludicrous to think that Nintendo, with its still
healthy sales of both the 3DS and 2DS handheld consoles, could struggle in
2014, but it's hard to see how it could turn the Wii U into a success now that
major and much better specified rivals in the next-generation war have joined
the scene.
KnowHow Movies
If people were surveyed in a Pointless TV show way about
movie and TV streaming services the top answers would invariably be Netflix and
Amazon's Lovefilm, with, perhaps, Wuaki.tv and Tesco's BlinkBox also featuring
somewhere further down. A safe bet for any contestant on the show would surely
be KnowHow Movies, Currys and PC World's Rovi-powered service that continues to
offer new and archive films and TV programmes to rent or buy, but with few of
the plaudits afforded to the bigger names.
It's for this reason that it could struggle against much
wider known competition in 2014. We believe the year will be the biggest yet
for consumption of media over the internet, but KnowHow Movies is possibly
being squeezed out by some of the heavy weights in the business.
HMV
While the high street retailer was saved at the last minute
by Hilco, the recent closures of stores in key locations across the UK
including in London, Newport and Warwickshire, show the brand is still ailing.
In addition, the chain's website has been converted from an online retail
outlet to a news, features and reviews source as the company has stopped
selling its wares over the internet.
Instead, HMV now sells digital music for download, a tricky
business to succeed in when you consider Apple's iTunes, Google Play and Amazon
are the biggest competitors. In short, the company is far from out of the woods
and, as with Blockbuster before it, even a promising acquisition could end up
in failure eventually. We all hope not, but the signs are not great.
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